Market analysis | IDM
8 2017 | international-dairy.com · 27
general economic, political development,
and the specific developments for the dairy
sector. To understand the future developments
the report focuses on the developments
for the essential parameters in the
last two decades to identify the major
changes and characteristics.
Part I:
The changing world agenda
The general framework for the global economy
has changed significantly since 1990 and
with periods of dynamic growth as well as recessions.
The political agenda has been altered
complexly from a cold war scenario and a dualistic
security to a global focus on terrorism.
2016-2025: The period of post truth and
protectionism:
Brexit has initiated a break-up in Europe
with no rational conclusion
• The Trump administration wants through
a protectionist approach to secure domestic
economic interests.
• Signs of increasing nationalism in Europe.
• Globalization is questions as the solution
to economic problems.
• Russia has become more aggressive and
the conflict with the western countries
impacts the economy negatively.
• China and India are rapidly improving
their position in the global economy.
The lesson from the past is that the global
developments are not linear and cumulative
but instead characterized by turbulence and
volatility. The international situation changes
Source: PM FOOD & DAIRY CONSULTING
very fast and the changes are comprehensive
due to the digital communication.
The international economy and markets
reacts very fast and the global economic
recession in mid-2008 was a reality in just
one month because of the increasing interdependence
between the economies.
Governments, economic institutions, and
companies try to adapt to this fast-changing
agenda by issuing new economic plans
and strategies. The key words are flexibility,
adaptability, and robustness.
The period from 2016 to 2025, will also
bring a wide range of changes in the framework
from for the global dairy industry.
The world dairy sector
The world dairy sector has since the
change of the millennium experienced several
changes in the world market situation
caused by the general economic and political
development in the world. The world dairy
industry from milk production to processing
has been less protected from volatile prices
since 2000 and this means direct impact
from the changes in the world milk balance.
The only exception is the US dairy sector
where nearly all dairy policy measures from
the 1990´s has remained in the new century.
The world market for dairy products was
from 2000 and until 2008 driven by global
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